Improved Efficiency in Grain Production 2000-2022: Trends and What Drove Them

Greg Howard
20th September, 2025

Improved Efficiency in Grain Production 2000-2022: Trends and What Drove Them

Unconditional kernel density and density contours of eco-efficiency of grain production in China.

Image adapted from: Jin et al. / CC BY (Source)

Key Findings

  • China’s grain production eco-efficiency is relatively low, with room for 31.8% improvement, and varies significantly by region
  • Eco-efficiency is generally increasing, but regional disparities are widening, showing a “club convergence” pattern with positive spillover effects
  • Key drivers of eco-efficiency have shifted from natural resources to economic factors and technology, with agricultural output, water availability, and production structure consistently important
Ensuring global food security while minimizing environmental impact is a major challenge. Modern agriculture, while highly productive, often relies on practices that contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, resource depletion, and pollution. Optimizing agricultural efficiency – producing more food with fewer resources and less environmental harm – is therefore crucial. A recent study by researchers at Shandong University of Finance and Economics and Università degli Studi di Milano[1] investigated the “eco-efficiency” of grain production across China, a major global food producer, between 2000 and 2022. The study focused on measuring how effectively Chinese provinces converted inputs (like land, water, fertilizer, and labor) into grain output, while simultaneously accounting for undesirable outputs such as pollution and waste. Unlike traditional efficiency measures, this research used a “super-efficiency SBM model” which allows for a more nuanced assessment, and importantly, incorporates these negative environmental consequences. They also used “life cycle assessment” to get a full picture of the environmental costs associated with grain production. The findings revealed a concerning trend: overall eco-efficiency in China’s grain production is relatively low. Significant regional disparities exist, with major grain-producing areas generally performing better than those focused on consumption. This aligns with earlier observations of yield stagnation in major cereal crops globally[2], suggesting that simply increasing inputs isn’t a sustainable solution. The research highlighted that most provinces haven't yet reached their full potential in terms of efficient and environmentally responsible production. However, the study also offered some positive news. Eco-efficiency has generally been increasing over the study period, but this improvement isn’t uniform. A “club convergence” pattern emerged, meaning certain regions are improving faster than others, creating a widening gap. Importantly, a “positive spillover” effect was detected, indicating that improvements in one province can positively influence eco-efficiency in neighboring regions. This suggests that knowledge sharing and regional cooperation could be valuable strategies for boosting overall efficiency. The researchers identified several key factors driving eco-efficiency. Economic factors, such as the gross total agricultural output, played a significant role. Water resource availability was also crucial, as was the structure of agricultural production – the types of crops grown and the farming methods employed. Interestingly, they found a “Matthew effect” – “the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer” – where provinces with already high eco-efficiency tend to improve further, while those lagging behind struggle to catch up. This finding is particularly relevant when considering the broader context of climate change and its impact on plant physiology. As climate change disrupts environmental conditions[3], the ability of plants to maintain ionic balance and regulate water uptake becomes critical. Provinces with better agricultural infrastructure and more advanced technologies are likely better equipped to adapt to these challenges, further exacerbating the existing disparities. Furthermore, the study’s emphasis on the structure of agricultural production echoes recent research highlighting the importance of low-carbon cropland use[4]. Optimizing crop choices and adopting practices that sequester carbon in the soil, such as those involving biomass pyrolysis and biochar application[5], can significantly improve eco-efficiency and contribute to carbon neutrality goals. The research from provides a valuable foundation for developing targeted policies aimed at promoting sustainable grain production in China. The findings suggest a need for investments in underperforming regions, focusing on improving water management, promoting efficient farming practices, and fostering regional collaboration. The study underscores the importance of considering both economic and environmental factors, and the need to address the underlying inequalities that hinder progress towards a more sustainable agricultural system.

AgricultureSustainabilityEcology

References

Main Study

1) Significant increase in eco-efficiency of China’s grain production from 2000 to 2022: Trend changes, typological evolution, and driving factors

Published 19th September, 2025

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0332740

Related Studies

2) Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation.

https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms2296

3) Function of key ion channels in abiotic stresses and stomatal dynamics.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.plaphy.2025.109574

4) Performance of cropland low-carbon use in China: Measurement, spatiotemporal characteristics, and driving factors.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149552

5) Integrated biochar solutions can achieve carbon-neutral staple crop production.

https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00694-0


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