Predicting Global Spread and Ideal Regions for Light Brown Apple Moth

Jenn Hoskins
17th June, 2024

Predicting Global Spread and Ideal Regions for Light Brown Apple Moth

Image Source: Natural Science News, 2024

Key Findings

  • The study by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences assessed the global invasion risk of the light brown apple moth (LBAM) using an optimized MaxEnt model
  • Key bioclimatic factors like minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation of the driest month significantly influence LBAM's potential distribution
  • The model predicts that regions such as the southeastern United States, southern Brazil, and Western Europe are at risk of LBAM invasion, especially under future climate scenarios
The light brown apple moth (LBAM), Epiphyas postvittana, is a highly polyphagous pest originally from Australia. It has become a significant concern due to its ability to attack a wide range of crop plants and its potential to invade new regions. A recent study conducted by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences aimed to assess the global invasion risk of LBAM using an optimized MaxEnt model, which incorporated 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation[1]. This study provides crucial insights into the potential spread of LBAM, especially in the context of climate change. LBAM's polyphagous nature, meaning it feeds on many different types of plants, makes it a formidable pest. Previous research has shown that LBAM can utilize at least 545 plant species across 363 genera from 121 families, making it one of the most polyphagous insects known[2]. This extensive host range poses a significant threat to agricultural and horticultural systems worldwide. The recent study by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences used the MaxEnt model to predict the potential geographical distribution of LBAM. Key bioclimatic variables, such as the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19), were identified as significant factors influencing the potential distribution of LBAM. The model highlighted regions beyond the current distribution of LBAM, including the southeastern United States, southern Brazil, eastern Argentina, Uruguay, southern Chile, and various Western European countries, as susceptible to invasion and establishment by LBAM. The findings of this study are consistent with previous research on other invasive pests. For instance, the southern armyworm, Spodoptera eridania, another polyphagous pest, has been predicted to expand its suitable habitat under climate change conditions, moving to higher latitudes[3]. Similarly, the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, has shown a sensitivity to bioclimatic variables and is expected to increase its risk areas in eastern Africa under future climate scenarios[4]. These parallels underscore the importance of understanding bioclimatic influences on pest distribution to develop effective management strategies. In the case of LBAM, the study predicts an increase in suitability above 45°N and 40°S under future climate scenarios, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in the 2050s. This implies that regions in Western Europe and the United States are likely to become more favorable habitats for LBAM as the climate changes. This trend is similar to the predicted expansion of the rugose spiraling whitefly, Aleurodicus rugioperculatus, which prefers warm and humid climates and is expected to spread under future climate scenarios[5]. The study emphasizes the need for countries and regions at risk of LBAM invasion to implement stringent inspections and quarantine measures. This is particularly important for countries with established trade ties with regions already invaded by LBAM. Effective monitoring and surveillance, combined with integrated pest management strategies, are crucial to prevent the introduction and spread of LBAM. In conclusion, the recent study by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences provides valuable insights into the potential global distribution of LBAM under current and future climate conditions. By identifying key bioclimatic variables that influence LBAM's distribution, the study highlights regions at risk of invasion and underscores the importance of proactive measures to manage this pest. The findings align with previous research on other invasive pests, reinforcing the need for comprehensive risk assessments and targeted management strategies to protect global agricultural systems.

AgricultureEnvironmentEcology

References

Main Study

1) Predicting global geographical distribution and latitudinal suitability gradient for light Brown apple moth.

Published 15th June, 2024

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e32268

Related Studies

2) Worldwide host plants of the highly polyphagous, invasive Epiphyas postvittana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae).

Journal: Journal of economic entomology, Issue: Vol 104, Issue 5, Oct 2011

3) Global Potential Geographical Distribution of the Southern Armyworm (Spodoptera eridania) under Climate Change.

https://doi.org/10.3390/biology12071040

4) Computational biogeographic distribution of the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda J.E. Smith) moth in eastern Africa.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16144

5) Predicting the invasion risk of rugose spiraling whitefly, Aleurodicus rugioperculatus, in India based on CMIP6 projections by MaxEnt.

https://doi.org/10.1002/ps.7199


Related Articles

An unhandled error has occurred. Reload 🗙