How Weather, Land, and People Affect Conflicts with Elephants

Jenn Hoskins
30th January, 2024

How Weather, Land, and People Affect Conflicts with Elephants

African Savanna Elephant (Loxodonta africana), one of the species covered in the study.

Photo adapted from: Dirk Froebel / CC BY (Source)
Human-wildlife conflict is a growing threat to biodiversity, impacting both animal populations and human communities. As human populations expand and climate change alters habitats, interactions between people and wildlife are becoming more frequent, often with negative consequences. Understanding where these conflicts are likely to occur is crucial for effective conservation efforts. A recent study from UC Santa Barbara[1] focuses on predicting future conflict hotspots for Asian and African elephants, two endangered species particularly vulnerable to conflict with humans. The study examined how three key factors – the expansion of farmland (cropland density), human population growth, and changes in suitable climate for elephants – are likely to interact and influence conflict risk by 2050. Researchers used climate change scenarios to project how these factors will shift, and then mapped areas where conflict is likely to increase. The core of the research involved modelling future conflict risk. Conflict risk was defined as areas where either cropland density or human population density reach high levels (the 90th percentile of current values). This means identifying areas where agricultural expansion or population growth are projected to be substantial. The researchers then overlaid this with projections of how climate change will affect the suitability of habitats for elephants. Climatic suitability refers to the environmental conditions – temperature, rainfall, vegetation – that elephants need to survive and thrive. A decrease in suitability suggests that areas currently habitable for elephants may become less so in the future. The findings indicate that conflict risk is expected to increase for both Asian and African elephants by 2050. Critically, the extent of this increase depends on the level of greenhouse gas emissions. Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP3-RCP 7.0, representing a future of continued high fossil fuel use and limited international cooperation), the increase in conflict risk is significantly greater than under a low-emissions scenario (SSP1-RCP 2.6, representing a future focused on sustainability and reduced emissions). This highlights the importance of mitigating climate change to reduce the potential for human-elephant conflict. The study also revealed a concerning overlap between decreasing climatic suitability and increasing conflict risk. In many areas, the places where elephants are likely to move as their current habitats become less suitable are also the places where human populations and farmland are expanding. This creates a “double jeopardy” situation, where elephants are pushed into areas with greater potential for conflict. These findings build upon earlier research demonstrating the broad impact of human activities on biodiversity[2][3]. Previous studies have shown that habitat loss and degradation are major drivers of species declines, reducing both the number of species and their overall abundance in affected areas. The current study adds a layer of complexity by incorporating the effects of climate change and projecting how these pressures will shift geographically. It echoes findings that proactive measures are needed to prevent further biodiversity loss[4], but specifically focuses on mitigating conflict as a key strategy. Furthermore, the study’s focus on range boundaries is relevant to understanding genetic impacts from fragmentation[5]. As elephants are forced into smaller, more isolated areas due to habitat loss and conflict, the potential for reduced gene flow and decreased genetic diversity increases, further threatening their long-term survival. The UCSB researchers suggest that proactive conflict mitigation strategies are essential to protect these iconic animals. This could include measures such as establishing protected areas, implementing early warning systems to alert communities to elephant movements, and promoting sustainable land-use practices that minimize habitat loss and fragmentation. The study emphasizes that addressing climate change is also crucial, as reducing greenhouse gas emissions will lessen the severity of future conflict risks.

EnvironmentWildlifeSustainability

References

Main Study

1) Effects of climate, land use, and human population change on human-elephant conflict risk in Africa and Asia.

Published 6th February, 2024 (future Journal edition)

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2312569121

Related Studies

2) Extinction risk from climate change.

Journal: Nature, Issue: Vol 427, Issue 6970, Jan 2004

3) Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity.

https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14324

4) Future threats to biodiversity and pathways to their prevention.

https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22900

5) A rapid, strong, and convergent genetic response to urban habitat fragmentation in four divergent and widespread vertebrates.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0012767


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